The last time a nation went to war with Iran was 30 years ago in 1980 against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. The war lasted eight long years with approximately 1.8 million casualties on both sides of the conflict. The war was fought over provinces of Iran to which Iraq believe to have a legitimate claim. The provinces Iraq wanted were near the Persian Gulf along the border of Iraq and Iran; the provinces happened to be rich in strategic natural resources, especially oil. The main reason why the conflict was so long and bloody was because members of NATO, most importantly the United States, funded both sides of the conflict despite their apparent public distaste for either regime. This foreign policy carried out by the Reagan Administration to secure the stability of oil prices during the 1980′s so the balance of market share between the member states OPEC (Oil Producing and Exporting Countries) countries was maintained. The Iranian military fought valiantly and in 1988 emerged victorious despite sustaining the majority of the casualties and expenses. The newly formed Islamic Republic of Iran was fighting for its existence and the American support for the war effort on both sides solidified the establishment of the anti-American government. The Iran-Iraq war is a case study in successful short term policy that suits the expedient needs of a nation-state but has unwanted long term ramifications. The conflict is also a preview of what war with Iran might be like if the United States or Israel decides to declare war on that nation.
Today, many facets of the media are reporting on the aggressive stance that Iran is taking in international politics. Possible war with Iran is a topic of much speculation among the Anglo-American think-tanks, media, supranational governments, and national government agencies. The new possibility of war with Iran is not a topic that emerged unexpectedly and out of context. The possibility of war with Iran is a phenomenon 31 years in the making with major developments in the geopolitical climate in the last decade. Iran is a nation-state that is suspect of American intentions as a result of Anglo-American cold war policies of the 1950′s. In 1953 the American Central Intelligence Agency and Britain’s Ministry of Intelligence launched a coup against Iranian President Mossadeq because he threatened Anglo-American oil interests that were established in the British colonial era. Mossadeq wanted to nationalize the Iranian oil industry and expel foreign interests in that country. Mossadeq was democratically elected and Iran at the time resembled modern western liberal democracies. However, Iranian policy in 1953 conflicted with Anglo-American interests and the West punished Iran by imposing the monarchical Shah that would function as a puppet of the West.
The 1979 revolution is what eventually destroyed the Shah’s regime and it was done in spite of America. Subsequently after, there was the American Embassy standoff in which American hostages were held by Iranian college students. The standoff was an embarrassment to the United States, strengthening the odious feelings between the two states. The Islamic Republic of Iran stabilized after the Iran-Iraq war until the United States invaded Afghanistan and Iraq after September 11, 2001. Iran feels threatened by the presence of Western military forces on both the east and west sides of her sovereign borders. As a result, Iran is said to be seeking to create a nuclear weapons program to protect itself. The prospect of a nuclear weapon in that region is dangerous to global security and the interests of OPEC, the United States, and Israel, who believes that Iran poses an existential threat.
The verdict is still out on the question of Iran having nuclear weapons because Iran has been generally cooperative with the nuclear non-proliferation watchdog of the UN, the International Atomic Energy Agency. War with Iran is unlikely as long as the general peace is maintained. Most likely Iran would not strike first in conflict. However, this raises questions of America’s intentions in that region as a result of the recent pre-emptive war with Iraq based on allegations of weapons of mass destruction against that country. Iran has reason to feel threatened; however, it is unlikely that war will happen because Iran has a military that is significantly under-developed in its capabilities. The nation only spends 2.5% of its GDP on weapons. Iran also makes claims that their nuclear program is only for the development of civilian nuclear power plants. This policy makes sense for a nation whose oil reserves are believed to be dry by mid century.
There is progress to be made in the dialogue between the United States and Iran to avoid war. President Barack Obama denounced the policy of pre-emptive war of the Bush administration. His focus is primarily on the open dialogue and diplomacy between the two nations. Sometimes pressure from the international community is implemented on President Obama’s behalf. Such pressure is unlikely to trigger a war. The Iranian government is feeling pressure from its own people in light of the recent election riots in Tehran. War with Iran is not in the interest of the United States because wars tend to strengthen oppressive regimes. The president has often stated that the conflict with Iran does not reside with its people; rather, the conflict is between the two governments. With that said war is unlikely with Iran, as such a conflict would be very unpopular with the people of the United States and Iran.