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War with Iran

The last time a nation went to war with Iran was 30 years ago in 1980 against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. The war lasted eight long years with approximately 1.8 million casualties on both sides of the conflict. The war was fought over provinces of Iran to which Iraq believe to have a legitimate claim. The provinces Iraq wanted were near the Persian Gulf along the border of Iraq and Iran; the provinces happened to be rich in strategic natural resources, especially oil. The main reason why the conflict was so long and bloody was because members of NATO, most importantly the United States, funded both sides of the conflict despite their apparent public distaste for either regime. This foreign policy carried out by the Reagan Administration to secure the stability of oil prices during the 1980′s so the balance of market share between the member states OPEC (Oil Producing and Exporting Countries) countries was maintained. The Iranian military fought valiantly and in 1988 emerged victorious despite sustaining the majority of the casualties and expenses. The newly formed Islamic Republic of Iran was fighting for its existence and the American support for the war effort on both sides solidified the establishment of the anti-American government. The Iran-Iraq war is a case study in successful short term policy that suits the expedient needs of a nation-state but has unwanted long term ramifications. The conflict is also a preview of what war with Iran might be like if the United States or Israel decides to declare war on that nation.

Today, many facets of the media are reporting on the aggressive stance that Iran is taking in international politics. Possible war with Iran is a topic of much speculation among the Anglo-American think-tanks, media, supranational governments, and national government agencies. The new possibility of war with Iran is not a topic that emerged unexpectedly and out of context. The possibility of war with Iran is a phenomenon 31 years in the making with major developments in the geopolitical climate in the last decade. Iran is a nation-state that is suspect of American intentions as a result of Anglo-American cold war policies of the 1950′s. In 1953 the American Central Intelligence Agency and Britain’s Ministry of Intelligence launched a coup against Iranian President Mossadeq because he threatened Anglo-American oil interests that were established in the British colonial era. Mossadeq wanted to nationalize the Iranian oil industry and expel foreign interests in that country. Mossadeq was democratically elected and Iran at the time resembled modern western liberal democracies. However, Iranian policy in 1953 conflicted with Anglo-American interests and the West punished Iran by imposing the monarchical Shah that would function as a puppet of the West.

The 1979 revolution is what eventually destroyed the Shah’s regime and it was done in spite of America. Subsequently after, there was the American Embassy standoff in which American hostages were held by Iranian college students. The standoff was an embarrassment to the United States, strengthening the odious feelings between the two states. The Islamic Republic of Iran stabilized after the Iran-Iraq war until the United States invaded Afghanistan and Iraq after September 11, 2001. Iran feels threatened by the presence of Western military forces on both the east and west sides of her sovereign borders. As a result, Iran is said to be seeking to create a nuclear weapons program to protect itself. The prospect of a nuclear weapon in that region is dangerous to global security and the interests of OPEC, the United States, and Israel, who believes that Iran poses an existential threat.

The verdict is still out on the question of Iran having nuclear weapons because Iran has been generally cooperative with the nuclear non-proliferation watchdog of the UN, the International Atomic Energy Agency. War with Iran is unlikely as long as the general peace is maintained. Most likely Iran would not strike first in conflict. However, this raises questions of America’s intentions in that region as a result of the recent pre-emptive war with Iraq based on allegations of weapons of mass destruction against that country. Iran has reason to feel threatened; however, it is unlikely that war will happen because Iran has a military that is significantly under-developed in its capabilities. The nation only spends 2.5% of its GDP on weapons. Iran also makes claims that their nuclear program is only for the development of civilian nuclear power plants. This policy makes sense for a nation whose oil reserves are believed to be dry by mid century.

There is progress to be made in the dialogue between the United States and Iran to avoid war. President Barack Obama denounced the policy of pre-emptive war of the Bush administration. His focus is primarily on the open dialogue and diplomacy between the two nations. Sometimes pressure from the international community is implemented on President Obama’s behalf. Such pressure is unlikely to trigger a war. The Iranian government is feeling pressure from its own people in light of the recent election riots in Tehran. War with Iran is not in the interest of the United States because wars tend to strengthen oppressive regimes. The president has often stated that the conflict with Iran does not reside with its people; rather, the conflict is between the two governments. With that said war is unlikely with Iran, as such a conflict would be very unpopular with the people of the United States and Iran.

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Iran Government

The State of Iran is formally known as the Islamic Republic of Iran. As such, the term “Islamic” means that there are theocratic elements of the structure of the Iranian government. Iran’s government is a blend of the structure of historical Islamically organized government and modern Democratic Republics. Iran is generally not considered to be a free society as the nature of the government’s rule is harsh and autocratic.

The current government structure of Iran came as a result of 1979 Islamic Revolution of Iran that deposed the monarchical shah of Iran. The state is headed by a supreme leader with the title of Ayatollah, which is Islamic in connotation. The Ayatollah is a position that is not elected by the public but indirectly elected the Assembly of Experts. The Ayatollah has the ultimate power in Iran, according to the Iranian government’s constitution. He is responsible for the “delineation and supervision of the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran. He, therefore, has the last word in matters of foreign and domestic policy. He is also commander-in-chief of the nation’s armed forces and intelligence agencies. He alone has the authority to declare war. Iran’s government is very top heavy as the Ayatollah also has the authority to appoint and dismiss members of the judiciary, state radio and television networks, and the commander of the Revolutionary guard corps, the Iranian government’s national defense force. The current Ayatollah of the Islamic Republic is Ayatollah Khameini.

The second highest position of the Iranian government infrastructure is the President. The president is elected and has a very public presence in matters of domestic and foreign policy. The current president of Iran is Dr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad has the authority over the Iranian government’s economic policy. He has nominal rule of over the Supreme National Security Council and Ministry of Intelligence and Security. The president has a cabinet of 22 ministers of which are appointed by the Iranian parliament.

The Parliament of Iran is an elected legislative body that passes laws, ratifies treaties, and approves the State’s budget. The parliaments laws must be approved by the Council of Guardians to ensure that new legislation is in accordance with Islamic law. The Council of Guardians is a body of Islamic clerics and scholars appointed by the Supreme Leader. The Assembly of Experts is a group of 86 Islamic clerics that approve the candidates for president and parliament. The Assembly is elected by the public and must consist of the top Islamic scholars of the country. The Assembly is also the entity that appoints the Supreme leader and reaffirms the Supreme Leader’s rule. Most new Supreme leaders are appointed from among the Assemply of Experts, therefore the tenure of the Supreme Leader is generally for the duration of the Supreme Leader’s life from the time he is appointed.

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Iran Military

There is much talk about Iran’s military capabilities in the news. Iran is a country that has not seen military conflict in over 20 years since the bloody eight-year conflict between its then aggressive neighbor Iraq. With the US Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the geopolitical climate of the Middle East has changed significantly over the last decade. Iran as a state may have its own reactions to the new geopolitical climate. Iran as currently stands in its long history is an ambitious nation whose form of government could be regarded as a model for the rest of the Middle East. Since 1979, the nation-state of Iran is formally known as the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Iranian Islamic revolution imposed a form of government that is a combination of religious theocracy and constitutional monarchy. This form of government came as a result of Western policy regarding the oil rich nation-state and promotes itself as the antithesis of western rule. Thus, Iran and its Islamic form of government can be regarded as a threat to the commercial interests of the West. Iran is also staunchly against the existence of Israel as a nation-state. Many times it has threatened existence of Israel.

Many members of the Western media and Israel use alarming language regarding the intentions of Iran and Iran’s military. Many geopolitical strategists in the West and Israel speculate whether or not Iran’s military is a capable of acquiring their own nuclear weapons programs. If it is the case that Iran has nuclear weapons capabilities, then the claims the Western media and governments against Iran is substantiated and proper actions should be taken. However, these claims are questionable because Iran is the only major influential player in the Middle East that might entice its neighbors to go against US and Western interests in that region. The complexities regarding Iran’s military capabilities should be critically thought of before one gives into the propaganda of both sides. Empirical facts should be considered, national histories, and all biases should be set aside in order to be properly informed on this critical matter of international politics.

Iran’s military is 8th largest in the world with a little over 500,000 active troops and 20 million men and 19 million women who are capable of military service. According to the CIA World Fact-book, Iran spends 2.5% of its gross domestic product on her military every year. In comparison, Turkey, a nation of similar size spends more on its military, 5.3% of its GDP. Iran’s military requires all of its citizens to serve in the military at age 19 for at least two months. In 2008, in the middle of all of the alarm regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Iran decreases the minimal time of mandatory military service for all its citizens. Every year about 700,000 new citizens are able for mandatory conscription into military service. Most of Iran’s weapons were bought 30 to 40 years ago from the United States and Great Britain when Iran’s last Shah was still in power before 1979. Iran’s military still possesses many of these weapons in addition to weapons purchased during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), of which the United States funded both sides. The Iran-Iraq War was one of the bloodiest conflicts of the 20th century as it killed up to 1,000,000 men. The economic damages from the war are still showing some repercussions. Iran’s military does not pose an existential threat to Israel or the West as it stands today.

However, if Iran has the nuclear capabilities in the region, Iran would have an influence over the region that would not be conducive to either US or Israeli interests in the region. Iran is acting rationally as it feels threatened by the war-hawkish stance of the United States, NATO and Israel. It may or may not have the funds to develop a nuclear weapon. Many geopolitical strategists are calling Iran’s bluff because Iran has not the technology or the means of developing such a program. Iran is an dictatorial and autocratic state, therefore it must appear strong in the face of international adversity. Autocratic states depend on the people’s fear of retribution from the regime. However, the recent riots in the streets of Tehran, the capital, would suggest otherwise as the people challenge the legitimacy of the Iran’s elections. Iran’s Military retaliated to control the angry mob; but more outrage amassed as the national leaders of Iran were internationally ridiculed by the international community in solidarity with the people of Iran. If this kind of discipline is endemic in the country itself, it says one of two possible things; either that Iran is neglecting its people because its allocating funds to a nuclear program, or the power-structure of the regime is buckling under the shifting weight of political change. In either case, Iran would not threaten its own existence either by isolating itself further from the international community or destroying itself from another potential revolution.

Therefore, the scenario of Iran’s military having nuclear capabilities is an unlikely one due to the sheer fact that Iran is bluffing as a means of securing its regime. The 2009 Iranian Election Riots of Tehran is an event that suggests that the American Government may have the wrong intelligence again. However, it could also be likely that they have intelligence that is classified and thus, not available to the media. One thing is for sure, time will eventually unfold the events that will shape this question of global security.