Many members of the Western media and Israel use alarming language regarding the intentions of Iran and Iran’s military. Many geopolitical strategists in the West and Israel speculate whether or not Iran’s military is a capable of acquiring their own nuclear weapons programs. If it is the case that Iran has nuclear weapons capabilities, then the claims the Western media and governments against Iran is substantiated and proper actions should be taken. However, these claims are questionable because Iran is the only major influential player in the Middle East that might entice its neighbors to go against US and Western interests in that region. The complexities regarding Iran’s military capabilities should be critically thought of before one gives into the propaganda of both sides. Empirical facts should be considered, national histories, and all biases should be set aside in order to be properly informed on this critical matter of international politics.

Iran’s military is 8th largest in the world with a little over 500,000 active troops and 20 million men and 19 million women who are capable of military service. According to the CIA World Fact-book, Iran spends 2.5% of its gross domestic product on her military every year. In comparison, Turkey, a nation of similar size spends more on its military, 5.3% of its GDP. Iran’s military requires all of its citizens to serve in the military at age 19 for at least two months. In 2008, in the middle of all of the alarm regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Iran decreases the minimal time of mandatory military service for all its citizens. Every year about 700,000 new citizens are able for mandatory conscription into military service. Most of Iran’s weapons were bought 30 to 40 years ago from the United States and Great Britain when Iran’s last Shah was still in power before 1979. Iran’s military still possesses many of these weapons in addition to weapons purchased during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), of which the United States funded both sides. The Iran-Iraq War was one of the bloodiest conflicts of the 20th century as it killed up to 1,000,000 men. The economic damages from the war are still showing some repercussions. Iran’s military does not pose an existential threat to Israel or the West as it stands today.

However, if Iran has the nuclear capabilities in the region, Iran would have an influence over the region that would not be conducive to either US or Israeli interests in the region. Iran is acting rationally as it feels threatened by the war-hawkish stance of the United States, NATO and Israel. It may or may not have the funds to develop a nuclear weapon. Many geopolitical strategists are calling Iran’s bluff because Iran has not the technology or the means of developing such a program. Iran is an dictatorial and autocratic state, therefore it must appear strong in the face of international adversity. Autocratic states depend on the people’s fear of retribution from the regime. However, the recent riots in the streets of Tehran, the capital, would suggest otherwise as the people challenge the legitimacy of the Iran’s elections. Iran’s Military retaliated to control the angry mob; but more outrage amassed as the national leaders of Iran were internationally ridiculed by the international community in solidarity with the people of Iran. If this kind of discipline is endemic in the country itself, it says one of two possible things; either that Iran is neglecting its people because its allocating funds to a nuclear program, or the power-structure of the regime is buckling under the shifting weight of political change. In either case, Iran would not threaten its own existence either by isolating itself further from the international community or destroying itself from another potential revolution.

Therefore, the scenario of Iran’s military having nuclear capabilities is an unlikely one due to the sheer fact that Iran is bluffing as a means of securing its regime. The 2009 Iranian Election Riots of Tehran is an event that suggests that the American Government may have the wrong intelligence again. However, it could also be likely that they have intelligence that is classified and thus, not available to the media. One thing is for sure, time will eventually unfold the events that will shape this question of global security.